Leading a Business During Uncertain Times

Introduction: A Constant in Business—Uncertainty

Each year presents its own set of challenges for business owners. Some are new, others familiar, but all must be addressed. Whether it’s sudden changes in interest rates, the impact of tariffs, or losing a key team member, uncertainty is a constant in the business landscape. What separates successful companies from struggling ones is not the presence or absence of challenges—but how leadership responds.

Identify the Source: Internal vs. External Challenges

The first step in leading through uncertainty is to identify whether you’re facing an internal or external issue.

– Internal Challenges: These are within your control—staffing, cash flow management, and outdated processes. For example, when a key employee resigns, it may be disruptive, but you control the response—hiring, restructuring, or succession planning.
– External Challenges: Macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rate hikes, or material shortages. These are beyond your control, but not beyond your ability to respond effectively.

Understanding the origin of the challenge determines how you should lead your business through it.

Leading with Incrementalism: The Six-Step Formula

Business success—especially in times of uncertainty—is rarely the result of one giant leap. It’s the product of consistently making small, well-considered decisions. I call this approach Incrementalism, a six-step framework:

1. Set the Goal
2. Decide on the Next Step
3. Take Action
4. Evaluate Results
5. Adjust Where Necessary
6. Repeat

It’s the same logic used by GPS systems: input your destination, and the system recalculates your route as obstacles arise. The simplicity of Incrementalism lies in its power—step-by-step progress that keeps your business moving forward even when the path is uncertain.

Play Calling: Making the Right Next Decision

In my book First and Ten on the Twenty…Is It Football, Business or Life?, I draw parallels between football and business. When a football team starts a drive on its own 20-yard line, they don’t aim to score on the first play. They aim for a first down—then another, then another—until they reach the end zone.

In business, the next step should be:
– Tactical, not impulsive.
– Informed by preparation, not panic.
– Designed to move the chains, not score on every play.

In uncertain times, success comes from making the best decision based on where you are right now—and always keeping your ultimate goal in view.

Prepare for the Unexpected: The Broken Play

Even the best-laid plans can be disrupted. In football, a perfectly drawn-up play can collapse at the line of scrimmage. When that happens, success depends on the running back’s ability to improvise—to spin, change direction, and still gain yardage.

Business works the same way. You will encounter broken plays: a deal falls through, a supplier unexpectedly raises costs, or new regulations disrupt your process. How your team responds depends on how you’ve prepared them.

Educate Over Train: Creating Confident Teams

True leadership means fostering a culture of ownership. Empower your team not just with tasks, but with the confidence and tools to make decisions when the unexpected occurs.

– Educated employees understand principles and can adapt.
– Trained employees follow scripts and freeze when conditions change.

Encourage your team to understand the broader strategy, recognize their role in it, and think for themselves. Your business will become more resilient—and your people more invested in its success.

Peripheral Vision: Seeing Opportunity Others Miss

Great leaders do more than react to problems—they anticipate and spot opportunity where others see none.

Ask yourself:
– Are you listening to what clients are dissatisfied with?
– Are you observing inefficiencies others accept as normal?
– Are you ready to pivot when the original plan fails?

These are the seeds of new products, services, or approaches that can differentiate your company—even during a downturn.

Conclusion: Know the Endgame, Then Back Into the Next Step

Uncertainty is not a detour—it’s part of the journey. Every play you call, every decision you make, should be aligned with your end goal. Whether that goal is selling your business, expanding into new markets, or improving efficiency—know what winning looks like.

Then ask: What’s my next step today to move closer to that goal?

When you lead with vision, decide with clarity, and act with adaptability, uncertain times become just another field to navigate—and conquer.

This article is based on concepts of my book, First and Ten on the Twenty…Is It Football, Business, Or Life?” The book analyzes 24 aspects of the game and business of Football that can be easily replicated in business and life.

Additional information on this book and my other books can be found at. https://toddsmithconsulting.com/author/